We are a few weeks away from the midpoint, delegate-wise, of the GOP primary fight. It’s hard to believe anyone other than Romney will win. Of course, this comes from the same person that predicted the Apple iPhone would be as overhyped as the Apple Newton. Proceed with caution.
Still, I’m calling it for Romney. Romney has a nearly 2 to 1 advantage in delegates over Santorum, and a 55% to 45% advantage over all his challengers combined.
Given that most of the remaining delegates (3/4ths, in fact) are allocated proportionally rather than winner-take-all, the non-Romneys would have to capture all 380 winner-take-all delegates remaining to be a credible challenge. That’s unlikely. The remaining proportional allocation will just keep dividing the pie. Well, at least Santorum should win his home state of Pennsylvania.
Or there could be a major shock event. Romney could have a Gary Hart like revelation (“Monkey Business” and Donna Rice picture here). Perhaps Kid Rock or Donald Trump could sit on Romney’s lap for a photo.