Is Russia a threat? Only if we fight back

Today I’ve been thinking about Russia and it’s potential invasion of the rest of Ukraine.  Here is how the logic goes:

1. The US plus EU have a GDP 15 times Russia’s.  Russia’s GDP is about the size of Italy’s
2. I don’t feel threatened by Italy
3. But then again, Italy doesn’t all those nuclear weapons
4. Nuclear weapons matter.

   Does GDP matter like it did in the second world war? Which then sent me off to understand the GDP perspective on the second world war.  It turns out that at the beginning of the second world war, Germany and it’s ally Italy, after neutralizing the USSR by treaty, were fairly evenly matched against France and the UK GDP wise.  So they invaded Poland.  Then they invaded France and fairly quickly finished them off.  At this point, with only the UK’s GDP to fight against, Germany’s victory seemed assured.  Then, of course, the Germans decided to declare war on the USSR, the Japanese on the US, and by 1942 it was clear that any long ground war was going to be won by the Allies and their superior GDP.  So, new point:

5. GDP only matters in a prolonged ground war.

   And now the rest of the logic:

6. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would not be a prolonged ground war.
7. Russia’s nuclear weapons keep the US and EU from entering into a prolonged ground war.
8. Russia’s GDP doesn’t matter.

Invade away, Putin!  We’ll slap some sanctions on you.  We’ll downsize the G8 to the G7.  A few years from now, we’ll forgive you (and if you don’t believe that, check out Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus and Morocco’s invasion of the Western Sahara).