Pandemic sounds pretty scary. But the definition of a pandemic is a disease that appears in 3 or more countries. Basically, every year’s flu bug qualifies.
Each year, 36,000 to 40,000 people die from influenza. The worldwide infection of the Swine Flu stands today at 150 new confirmed cases. Now that every sniffle will be tested for the flu, it’s more likely that we’ll find it. It’s going to sound scary, and it’s an important reminder of the fragility of our biological niche.
Each flu bug needs to be considered in terms of virulence and severity. The SARS bug is very severe (it kills people) but it isn’t virulent (it doesn’t transfer between humans). The Swine Flu appears to be virulent, although we don’t know how many people are exposed or infected yet. On the severity level, it is significantly less severe than SARS, which has killed 20% of people it has infected. Severity may be no worse, in the end, than a bad year of the flu.
Politically, it’s better to be careful than Katrina-ed, so it makes sense to overreact to these scares. But I expect (and hope) that the death toll in the US will be less than the yearly deathtoll from influenza.
Sean Foote's Blog 