Romney needs 46% of remaining delegates

In another sign that the end is nigh for non-Mitt Republican candidates, Mitt Romney needs 46% of the remaining delegates to claim the GOP crown. One fourth of his remaining need can come from winner take all California in June, where he leads polls by a healthy margin (43% to Sanotum’s 23%)

By definition, all the remaining candidates need 54% of the delegates to prevent Romney’s win. They have collectively won only 45% of the delegates on offer to date.

The specifics by candidate:

• Santorum needs 69% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination
• Gingrich needs 80% of the remaining delegates
• Ron Paul needs 87% of the delegates.

Despite Santorum’s win in Louisiana last weekend, Romney’s “% of remaining delegates needed” barely changed.

196 donors account for 80% of GOP primary dollars

Thanks to the Citizen’s United ruling, I’m not worried about the 1% like the Occupy protesters.  I’m worried about the 0.000063%.  That’s because that’s who’s paying for the Republican primary.  Just 196 donors account for 80% of all GOP primary dollars to date.

I’ve written enough previously about the ruling that allowed unlimited donations to barely separated SuperPACs supporting their candidates.  For more details go here or here.  Just remember New York Times columnist Tim Egan’s quip “This is your democracy” and “This is your democracy on meth”

At least one SuperPAC out there stands for the individual donor.  One SuperPAC that is definitely not coordinating with any candidate.  And that’s Stephen Colbert’s “Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow” SuperPAC, which has raised $1m from 31,595 people.  Leave to the satirists to be the sanest.

Romney will win GOP nomination

We are a few weeks away from the midpoint, delegate-wise, of the GOP primary fight. It’s hard to believe anyone other than Romney will win. Of course, this comes from the same person that predicted the Apple iPhone would be as overhyped as the Apple Newton. Proceed with caution.

Still, I’m calling it for Romney. Romney has a nearly 2 to 1 advantage in delegates over Santorum, and a 55% to 45% advantage over all his challengers combined.

Given that most of the remaining delegates (3/4ths, in fact) are allocated proportionally rather than winner-take-all, the non-Romneys would have to capture all 380 winner-take-all delegates remaining to be a credible challenge.  That’s unlikely.  The remaining proportional allocation will just keep dividing the pie.  Well, at least Santorum should win his home state of Pennsylvania.

Or there could be a major shock event.  Romney could have a Gary Hart like revelation (“Monkey Business” and Donna Rice picture here).  Perhaps Kid Rock or Donald Trump could sit on Romney’s lap for a photo.

Peyton Manning trades horses – a Colt for a Bronco

Sports are what we pay attention to when we don’t want to face real life.  It’s like watching the Kardashians with less liposuction, padding, and fake eye-lashes.  Or sports is like going shopping as a past-time.  We should be learning Spanish, or spending quality time with the kids.  But only sports can take us away from the internet.

So that means you know more about Peyton Manning than your neighbor.  And you know that he just replaced Tim Tebow as quarterback in Denver.  Tebow, also known as God’s Chosen to a significant number of Americans, will now likely increase the unemployment rolls.  The Republican presidential candidates can count it against Obama that way.

Or perhaps The Onion is correct with this headline below a picture of Tebow:

Broncos Calling Teams to See if They Need Anyone that Can’t Play Quarterback

or my favorite of the day

Peyton Manning Reinjures Neck Saying No to Titans

Romney buying the GOP primary

Unlike media pundits, I can’t predict whether the GOP will have a brokered election.  But I can tell you how much the candidates are “paying” for votes with advertising dollars. Here’s the breakdown of advertising dollars per vote from the Associated Press:

Romney            $12.70 per vote

Santorum         $  3.07 per vote

Gingrich           $  4.78 per vote

Paul                   $  6.33 per vote

Yep, Romney is within just a few cents of outspending the combined dollars per vote of all 3 of his competitors.

How does that compare to the 2008 primaries? Well as of June of 2008, according to ABC News and a group called the Wisconsin Advertising Project:

McCain             $  1.17 per vote

Clinton              $  2.77 per vote

Obama              $  4.46 per vote

Romney 2012 is even outspending Hilary and Barack in the hotly contested 2008 Democratic primary.  But wait, Romney 2012 is outspending Romney 2008:

Romney 2008 $  7.04 per vote

Romney is quite the high spender, even in 2008.  While he never really challenged four years ago, in total advertising dollars he outspent all of is 2008 competition (and by “all” I mean John McCain, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Giuliani).  What the heck, I’ll throw in John Edwards and Joe Biden, too, even though they were in the Democratic primary.  That’s right, Romney outspent all the Republicans and some of the Democrats in 2008 advertising spending.

In a way, this is starting to feel like Meg Whitman’s California gubernatorial primary campaign all over again.  Well, not quite.  Her advertising dollars per primary vote:

Meg Whitman     $ 52.00 per vote

Today’s quote

“If a man speaks his mind in the forest and no woman hears him, is he still wrong?”
— Sir Ken Robinson