Trump is not a sickness. Trump is a symptom. While Trump could be a symptom of many things, I’ll focus on this one big risk to democracy: we’ve become a class society with little chance for change. And we’re risking the nation because of it.
Like many of you, I grew up being told a few things by my parents:
- I’m middle class
- In America, you can move up with hard work
- If you don’t like the government, you can vote to change it. Your vote matters.
These are social stress “pressure relief valves”. Sadly, they aren’t true anymore. You’re stuck. Not only are you stuck you got where you are not on your own but more because of your situation (e.g. seemingly all Nascar drivers are sons of Nascar drivers). And you are powerless to change your lot. This is the recipe for rebellion.
Point 1. The middle class isn’t as well off as it used to be. The middle 33% of the US has household incomes of $30,000 to $62,500. The poverty line is $24,250 in household income. A single shock, like a health problem or a layoff, can push most middle class families into poverty. I suspect if you are reading this, your household is in the upper third of incomes. You and I don’t really understand the challenges of the bottom 2/3rds. We need to start.
Point 2. You can’t move up, your parents were just kidding when they said that. The US is more like the UK in terms of upward mobility, and the UK is well known for it’s class system. The US has as much upward mobility as Pakistan, and worse than Denmark, Sweden, and Japan. These are not the first countries we think of when we think of dynamic entrepreneurs rising from poverty to success.
According to journalist Jason DeParle:
At least five large studies in recent years have found the United States to be less mobile than comparable nations. A project led by Markus Jantti, an economist at a Swedish university, found that 42 percent of American men raised in the bottom fifth of incomes stay there as adults. That shows a level of persistent disadvantage much higher than in Denmark (25 percent) and Britain (30 percent)—a country famous for its class constraints.[27] Meanwhile, just 8 percent of American men at the bottom rose to the top fifth. That compares with 12 percent of the British and 14 percent of the Danes. Despite frequent references to the United States as a classless society, about 62 percent of Americans (male and female) raised in the top fifth of incomes stay in the top two-fifths, according to research by the Economic Mobility Project of the Pew Charitable Trusts. Similarly, 65 percent born in the bottom fifth stay in the bottom two-fifths.
The reasons for immobility, and it’s associated inequality, are policies like real estate zoning, which keep people segregated. Zoning policies were exclusionary, and often racist, up through the Fair Housing Act of 1968. Once segregated, all one’s friends, connections, summer internships, and schools are similarly segregated. Legacy college admissions, where children of alumni are given preferential treatment, is an American only system to prevent changes to the cultural makeup of universities.
How can we possibly be a united nation when we don’t mingle?
Point 3. If you don’t like it, vote for change. Except, the voting process is a mess. Congress has an 11% approval rating but a 96% reelection rate. In a presidential election, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada have more than 40 times the voting power of Arkansas, Alabama, and Kentucky. Gerrymandering makes the will of the voters matter less:
Does my vote really matter?
What we are left with is class stress that we don’t even admit. It’s the reason that voters can ignore experts, ignore media, insult and harm people that are Americans but classified as “other”. These voters can rationally claim “those experts/media/minorities/Americans don’t know me. I don’t see them in my neighborhood, and if I do they are taking my job or scaring me!”
Solutions to these class problem are unattractive for people like me living above that middle 33%. Inheritance taxes were designed to reduce class stress by reducing inter-generational wealth. They are at their lowest levels in decades. They could be increased. School budgets are tied to segregated real estate values. They could be untied, leveling educational access.
These are politically unpopular ideas. But the alternative may be a more explosive pressure release — starting with a Trump presidency, who harnessed the anger to win election but is inept at governing — and ending with a more talented demagogue that harnesses anger and tears the system down, Constitution and all.
Sean Foote's Blog 